The Health Care Blog: Winners and Losers - Strategy in a Post-Reform World

By BILL KRAMER

Most health policy experts are focusing on the daily ups and downs in the political battles over health reform. Within the health care industry, however, there is a buzz about who will be the winners and losers after health reform passes. A.M. Best’s U.S. Health and HMO Insurance Index has been volatile since last November, reflecting high uncertainty about the effect of health reform. Earlier this summer, there was some speculative analysis about the potential impact of reform on health care stocks. Will health insurers come out as winners? What about hospitals, doctors, drug manufacturers, and insurance agents?

It’s good to look ahead, but I think most people are asking the wrong question. Each of these health industry sectors – in aggregate -- will probably do just fine in the post-reform world, as Bob Laszewski points out in his recent blog post. The more important question is: who will be the winners and losers within each sector?
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